Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS): Development and Application of Computer Modeling to Selected National Planning Scenarios for High-Consequence Events
Received 15 May 2008; received in revised form 19 August 2008; accepted 16 September 2008. published online 05 November 2008.
Few tools exist that are sufficiently robust to allow manipulation of key input variables to produce casualty estimates resulting from high-consequence events reflecting local or specific regions of concern. This article describes the design and utility of a computerized modeling simulation tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS), developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. As a scalable, flexible tool, EMCAPS is intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels ranging from local health systems to regional and state public health departments to Metropolitan Medical Response System jurisdictions. Designed around the subset of the National Planning Scenarios with health effects, advanced by the US Department of Homeland Security, the tool's platform is supported by the detailed descriptions and readily retrievable evidence-based assumptions of each scenario. The EMCAPS program allows the user to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that would best reflect the region or locale of interest. Inputs include population density, vulnerabilities, event size, and potency, as applicable. Using these inputs, EMCAPS generates the anticipated population-based health surge influence of the hazard scenario. Casualty estimates are stratified by injury severity/types where appropriate. Outputs are graph and table tabulations of surge estimates. The data can then be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems. EMCAPS may be downloaded without cost from http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/EMCAPS/EMCAPS.html as shareware.
aDepartment of Emergency Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
cJohns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
dNational Center for the Study of Catastrophic Preparedness and Response, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
Address for correspondence: Meridith H. Thanner, PhD, Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response, 5801 Smith Avenue, Davis Bldg 3220, Baltimore, MD 21209; 410-735-6442, fax 410-735-6440
Supervising editor: Jonathan L. Burstein, MD
Funding and support: By Annals policy, all authors are required to disclose any and all commercial, financial, and other relationships in any way related to the subject of this article, that might create any potential conflict of interest. See the Manuscript Submission Agreement in this issue for examples of specific conflicts covered by this statement. Supported in part by a Maryland Special Projects Grant through the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) FY 2005 Bioterrorism Hospital Preparedness Program and by the US Department of Homeland Security through a grant (N00014-06-1-0991, awarded to the National Center for the Study of Catastrophic Preparedness and Response). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not represent the policy or position of the Department of Homeland Security.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not represent the policy or position of the Department of Homeland Security.
Reprints not available from the authors.
Publication date: Available online November 4, 2008.
ABSTRACT