Annals of Emergency Medicine
Volume 55, Issue 4 , Pages 380-389 , April 2010

Clinical Prediction Rules: Answers to the November 2009 Journal Club

References 

  1. Laupacis A, Sekar N, Stiell IG. Clinical prediction rules (A review and suggested modifications of methodological standards). JAMA. 1997;277:488–494
  2. Steyerberg EW. Clinical Prediction Models: A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating. New York, NY: Springer; 2009;
  3. Toll DB, Janssen KJ, Vergouwe Y, et al. Validation, updating and impact of clinical prediction rules: a review. J Clin Epidemiol. 2008;61:1085–1094
  4. Reilly BM, Evans AT. Translating clinical research into clinical practice: impact of using prediction rules to make decisions. Ann Intern Med. 2006;144:201–209
  5. Gibler WB, Runyon JP, Levy RC, et al. A rapid diagnostic and treatment center for patients with chest pain in the emergency department. Ann Emerg Med. 1995;25:1–8
  6. Hoffman JR, Mower WR, Wolfson AB, et al. Validity of a set of clinical criteria to rule out injury to the cervical spine in patients with blunt trauma (National Emergency X-Radiography Utilization Study Group). N Engl J Med. 2000;343:94–99
  7. Kline JA, Courtney DM, Kabrhel C, et al. Prospective multicenter evaluation of the pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria. J Thromb Haemost. 2008;6:772–780
  8. Marrie TJ, Lau CY, Wheeler SL, et al. A controlled trial of a critical pathway for treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAPITAL Study Investigators. Community-Acquired Pneumonia Intervention Trial Assessing Levofloxacin). JAMA. 2000;283:749–755
  9. Plint AC, Bulloch B, Osmond MH, et al. Validation of the Ottawa Ankle Rules in children with ankle injuries. Acad Emerg Med. 1999;6:1005–1009
  10. Stiell IG, Greenberg GH, McKnight RD, et al. Decision rules for the use of radiography in acute ankle injuries (Refinement and prospective validation). JAMA. 1993;269:1127–1132
  11. Stiell IG, McKnight RD, Greenberg GH, et al. Implementation of the Ottawa Ankle Rules. JAMA. 1994;271:827–832
  12. Moons KG, Altman DG, Vergouwe Y, et al. Prognosis and prognostic research: application and impact of prognostic models in clinical practice. BMJ. 2009;338:b375
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  14. Royston P, Moons KG, Altman DG, et al. Prognosis and prognostic research: developing a prognostic model. BMJ. 2009;338:b604
  15. Harrell FE, Margolis PA, Gove S, et al. Development of a clinical prediction model for an ordinal outcome: the World Health Organization Multicentre Study of Clinical Signs and Etiological agents of Pneumonia, Sepsis and Meningitis in Young Infants (WHO/ARI Young Infant Multicentre Study Group). Stat Med. 1998;17:909–944
  16. Harrell FE, Shih YC. Using full probability models to compute probabilities of actual interest to decision makers. Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 2001;17:17–26
  17. Randolph AG, Guyatt GH, Calvin JE, et al. Understanding articles describing clinical prediction tools (Evidence Based Medicine in Critical Care Group). Crit Care Med. 1998;26:1603–1612
  18. Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJ, Harrell FE, et al. Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets. Stat Med. 2000;19:1059–1079
  19. Breiman L. Classification and Regression Trees. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth International; 1984;
  20. Altman DG, Vergouwe Y, Royston P, et al. Prognosis and prognostic research: validating a prognostic model. BMJ. 2009;338:b605
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  30. Morris JA, Carrillo Y, Jenkins JM, et al. Surgical adverse events, risk management, and malpractice outcome: morbidity and mortality review is not enough. Ann Surg. 2003;237:844–851discussion 851-852
  31. Fabbri A, Marchesini G, Morselli-Labate AM, et al. Blood alcohol concentration and management of road trauma patients in the emergency department. J Trauma. 2001;50:521–528
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  33. Janjua KJ, Sugrue M, Deane SA. Prospective evaluation of early missed injuries and the role of tertiary trauma survey. J Trauma. 1998;44:1000–1006discussion 1006-1007
  34. Lavoie A, Ratte S, Clas D, et al. Preinjury warfarin use among elderly patients with closed head injuries in a trauma center. J Trauma. 2004;56:802–807
  35. Reynolds FD, Dietz PA, Higgins D, et al. Time to deterioration of the elderly, anticoagulated, minor head injury patient who presents without evidence of neurologic abnormality. J Trauma. 2003;54:492–496

 Section editors: Tyler W. Barrett, MD; David L. Schriger, MD, MPH

 Editor's Note: You are reading the twelfth installment of Annals of Emergency Medicine Journal Club. The questions and the article they are about (Vaillancourt et al. Ann Emerg Med. 2009;54:663-671) were published in the November 2009 issue. Information about journal club can be found at http://www.annemergmed.com/content/journalclub. Readers should recognize that these are suggested answers. We hope they are accurate; we know that they are not comprehensive. There are many other points that could be made about these questions or about the article in general. Questions are rated “novice,” () “intermediate,” () and “advanced” () so that individuals planning a journal club can assign the right question to the right student. The “novice” rating does not imply that a novice should be able to spontaneously answer the question. “Novice” means we expect that someone with little background should be able to do a bit of reading, formulate an answer, and teach the material to others. Intermediate and advanced questions also will likely require some reading and research, and that reading will be sufficiently difficult that some background in clinical epidemiology will be helpful in understanding the reading and concepts. We are interested in receiving feedback about this feature. Please e-mail journalclub@acep.org with your comments.

PII: S0196-0644(09)01795-8

doi: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2009.11.021

Annals of Emergency Medicine
Volume 55, Issue 4 , Pages 380-389 , April 2010

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